butterfingers durex: November 2013

Friday, November 8, 2013

Lyoto Machida ready for title shot, but willing to wait for 'right moment'

Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Lyoto Machida made a huge impact in the middleweight division with his first-round knockout over Mark Munoz at UFC Fight Night 30 in London. "The Dragon" returns to the Octagon on Feb. 8 in Jaragua do Sul, Brazil, against Gegard Mousasi, and he needs a win to keep chasing the middleweight title.

"Mousasi is a tough fighter, I’ve seen his fights before and he won titles in other promotions, but I will only focus on his game in my last four or five weeks of camp," Machida said during a Q&A with the fans in Goiania, Brazil on Wednesday.

"He is right below me in the UFC rankings and a win over him would make me achieve even more in this division. But if I lose this fight, it would be complicated. I would fall from fifth place to hell [laughs]," Machida said.

Machida believes he could earn a shot at the middleweight title with a win over Mousasi, a former DREAM and Strikeforce champion who returns to the middleweight division after going 7-1-1 as a light-heavyweight.

"I'm ready (to fight for the title) already, but I have to follow the rankings," he said. "I don’t like to rush things. The right moment will come. I want to keep fighting because it's important for me to keep this rhythm. I want to feel well in this division, this is my place."

Anderson Silva, Machida’s teammate, fights Chris Weidman on Dec. 28 for the middleweight belt at UFC 168, and "The Dragon" doesn’t plan to fight another friend inside the Octagon.

"He said he would never fight me, that we are like brothers," Machida said. "Anderson told me he has other goals, that he was the champion for a long time and he's focused on other goals now, like superfights. He said he would even leave the title to not fight me.

"But we’ll see what happens. I still have to fight Gegard Mousasi in Jaragua do Sul, in February, and I want to think on this fight first. One step at a time."

Source: http://www.mmafighting.com/2013/11/7/5076966/lyoto-machida-gegard-mousasi-ufc-fight-night-30
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If a tree falls in Brazil…? Amazon deforestation could mean droughts for western US

If a tree falls in Brazil? Amazon deforestation could mean droughts for western US

PUBLIC RELEASE DATE:

7-Nov-2013

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Contact: Morgan Kelly
mgnkelly@princeton.edu
609-258-5729
Princeton University

In research meant to highlight how the destruction of the Amazon rainforest could affect climate elsewhere, Princeton University-led researchers report that the total deforestation of the Amazon may significantly reduce rain and snowfall in the western United States, resulting in water and food shortages, and a greater risk of forest fires.

The researchers report in the Journal of Climate that an Amazon stripped bare could mean 20 percent less rain for the coastal Northwest and a 50 percent reduction in the Sierra Nevada snowpack, a crucial source of water for cities and farms in California. Previous research has shown that deforestation will likely produce dry air over the Amazon. Using high-resolution climate simulations, the researchers are the first to find that the atmosphere's normal weather-moving mechanics would create a ripple effect that would move that dry air directly over the western United States from December to February.

Specifically, a denuded Amazon would develop a weather cycle consisting of abnormally dry air in the sun-scorched northern Amazon around the equator weighted by wetter air in the cooler south. Research has speculated that this pattern would be similar to the warm-water climate pattern El Nio, which during the winter months brings heavy precipitation to southern California and the Sierra Nevada region while drying out the Pacific Northwest.

The Princeton-led researchers found that the Amazon pattern would be subject to the same meandering high-altitude winds known as Rossby waves that distribute the El Nio system worldwide from its source over the Pacific Ocean. Rossby waves are instrumental forces in Earth's weather that move east or west across the planet, often capturing the weather of one region such as chill Arctic air and transporting it to another. Because the Amazon pattern forms several thousand miles to the southeast from El Nio, the researchers report, the Rossby waves that put the rainy side of El Nio over southern California would instead subject that region to the dry end of the Amazon pattern. The pattern's rainy portion would be over the Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.

First author David Medvigy, an assistant professor of geosciences at Princeton, explained that the findings stand as one possible outcome of Amazon deforestation in regions outside of South America consequences that scientists are working to understand. The rainforest influences various aspects of the surrounding climate, including cloud coverage, heat absorption and rainfall.

"The big point is that Amazon deforestation will not only affect the Amazon it will not be contained. It will hit the atmosphere and the atmosphere will carry those responses," Medvigy said.

"It just so happens that one of the locations feeling that response will be one we care about most agriculturally," he said. "If you change the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, where most of the irrigation for California's Central Valley comes from, then by this study deforestation of the Amazon could have serious consequences for the food supply of the United States."

Because the exact result of Amazon deforestation is impossible to know currently, the behavior and impact of El Nio provides one of the best ideas of how the loss of the Amazon could play out, Medvigy said. Studies have suggested since 1993 that an Amazon without trees will develop an El Nio-like pattern, the researchers reported. The researchers then focused on the northwestern United States because the region is typically sensitive to El Nio.

"We don't know what the world will be like without the Amazon. We know exactly what happens with El Nio it's been studied extensively," Medvigy said. "Our intention with this paper was to identify an analogy between El Nio and Amazon deforestation. There's good reason to believe there will be strong climatic similarities between the two. Research like this will give us a handle on what to expect from Amazon deforestation."

Medvigy worked with second author Robert Walko, a senior scientist in the division of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami; Martin Otte, a postdoctoral fellow at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division; and Roni Avissar, a University of Miami professor of meteorology and physical oceanography and dean of the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

The high resolution of the researchers' climate model allowed them to see the otherwise subtle pull of the Rossby waves, Medvigy said. The typical model buries finer atmospheric features under a scale of about 200 kilometers twice the width of the Andes Mountains. Medvigy and his co-authors spotted the intricacies of the Amazon's future weather pattern using a resolution as fine as 25 kilometers, he said.

The researchers based their simulation on the Amazon's complete removal, an exaggerated level of destruction needed to produce a noticeable effect, Medvigy said. Nonetheless, clear-cutting of the Amazon marches on, although conservation efforts have significantly slowed deforestation in countries such as Brazil since the mid-2000s. In addition, research has shown that climate change, especially a spike in the global temperature, could wipe out as much as 85 percent of the forest.

The Amazon's fragility and vulnerability combined with its outsized sway over the climate add an urgency to better understanding how the forest's disappearance will affect the larger climate, particularly for agriculturally important areas such as California, Medvigy said.

"We know the Amazon is being deforested, but we don't know for sure what's going to happen because of it," Medvigy said. "Other scientists need to do these simulations and see if they get the same results. If they do, then policymakers will have to take notice."

###

The paper, "Simulated changes in Northwest US climate in response to Amazon deforestation," was published in the Nov. 15 edition of the Journal of Climate. This work was supported by awards from the National Science Foundation (grant numbers 1151102 and 0902197).

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If a tree falls in Brazil? Amazon deforestation could mean droughts for western US

PUBLIC RELEASE DATE:

7-Nov-2013

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| E-mail

]

Share
Contact: Morgan Kelly
mgnkelly@princeton.edu
609-258-5729
Princeton University

In research meant to highlight how the destruction of the Amazon rainforest could affect climate elsewhere, Princeton University-led researchers report that the total deforestation of the Amazon may significantly reduce rain and snowfall in the western United States, resulting in water and food shortages, and a greater risk of forest fires.

The researchers report in the Journal of Climate that an Amazon stripped bare could mean 20 percent less rain for the coastal Northwest and a 50 percent reduction in the Sierra Nevada snowpack, a crucial source of water for cities and farms in California. Previous research has shown that deforestation will likely produce dry air over the Amazon. Using high-resolution climate simulations, the researchers are the first to find that the atmosphere's normal weather-moving mechanics would create a ripple effect that would move that dry air directly over the western United States from December to February.

Specifically, a denuded Amazon would develop a weather cycle consisting of abnormally dry air in the sun-scorched northern Amazon around the equator weighted by wetter air in the cooler south. Research has speculated that this pattern would be similar to the warm-water climate pattern El Nio, which during the winter months brings heavy precipitation to southern California and the Sierra Nevada region while drying out the Pacific Northwest.

The Princeton-led researchers found that the Amazon pattern would be subject to the same meandering high-altitude winds known as Rossby waves that distribute the El Nio system worldwide from its source over the Pacific Ocean. Rossby waves are instrumental forces in Earth's weather that move east or west across the planet, often capturing the weather of one region such as chill Arctic air and transporting it to another. Because the Amazon pattern forms several thousand miles to the southeast from El Nio, the researchers report, the Rossby waves that put the rainy side of El Nio over southern California would instead subject that region to the dry end of the Amazon pattern. The pattern's rainy portion would be over the Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.

First author David Medvigy, an assistant professor of geosciences at Princeton, explained that the findings stand as one possible outcome of Amazon deforestation in regions outside of South America consequences that scientists are working to understand. The rainforest influences various aspects of the surrounding climate, including cloud coverage, heat absorption and rainfall.

"The big point is that Amazon deforestation will not only affect the Amazon it will not be contained. It will hit the atmosphere and the atmosphere will carry those responses," Medvigy said.

"It just so happens that one of the locations feeling that response will be one we care about most agriculturally," he said. "If you change the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, where most of the irrigation for California's Central Valley comes from, then by this study deforestation of the Amazon could have serious consequences for the food supply of the United States."

Because the exact result of Amazon deforestation is impossible to know currently, the behavior and impact of El Nio provides one of the best ideas of how the loss of the Amazon could play out, Medvigy said. Studies have suggested since 1993 that an Amazon without trees will develop an El Nio-like pattern, the researchers reported. The researchers then focused on the northwestern United States because the region is typically sensitive to El Nio.

"We don't know what the world will be like without the Amazon. We know exactly what happens with El Nio it's been studied extensively," Medvigy said. "Our intention with this paper was to identify an analogy between El Nio and Amazon deforestation. There's good reason to believe there will be strong climatic similarities between the two. Research like this will give us a handle on what to expect from Amazon deforestation."

Medvigy worked with second author Robert Walko, a senior scientist in the division of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami; Martin Otte, a postdoctoral fellow at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division; and Roni Avissar, a University of Miami professor of meteorology and physical oceanography and dean of the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

The high resolution of the researchers' climate model allowed them to see the otherwise subtle pull of the Rossby waves, Medvigy said. The typical model buries finer atmospheric features under a scale of about 200 kilometers twice the width of the Andes Mountains. Medvigy and his co-authors spotted the intricacies of the Amazon's future weather pattern using a resolution as fine as 25 kilometers, he said.

The researchers based their simulation on the Amazon's complete removal, an exaggerated level of destruction needed to produce a noticeable effect, Medvigy said. Nonetheless, clear-cutting of the Amazon marches on, although conservation efforts have significantly slowed deforestation in countries such as Brazil since the mid-2000s. In addition, research has shown that climate change, especially a spike in the global temperature, could wipe out as much as 85 percent of the forest.

The Amazon's fragility and vulnerability combined with its outsized sway over the climate add an urgency to better understanding how the forest's disappearance will affect the larger climate, particularly for agriculturally important areas such as California, Medvigy said.

"We know the Amazon is being deforested, but we don't know for sure what's going to happen because of it," Medvigy said. "Other scientists need to do these simulations and see if they get the same results. If they do, then policymakers will have to take notice."

###

The paper, "Simulated changes in Northwest US climate in response to Amazon deforestation," was published in the Nov. 15 edition of the Journal of Climate. This work was supported by awards from the National Science Foundation (grant numbers 1151102 and 0902197).

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| E-mail

Share

]

AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-11/pu-iat110713.php
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Hubble spots strange asteroid with 6 tails of dust

This combination of Sept. 10 and 23, 2013 photos provided by NASA shows six comet-like tails radiating from a body in the asteroid belt, designated P/2013 P5. The Hubble Space Telescope discovered it in the asteroid belt between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. A research team led by the University of California at Los Angeles believes the asteroid is rotating so much that its surface is flying apart. It’s believed to be a fragment of a larger asteroid damaged in a collision 200 million years ago. (AP Photo/NASA, ESA, D. Jewitt - UCLA)

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — This is one strange asteroid.

The Hubble Space Telescope has discovered a six-tailed asteroid in the asteroid belt between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. Scientists say they've never seen anything like it. Incredibly, the comet-like tails change shape as the asteroid sheds dust. The streams have occurred over several months.

A research team led by the University of California, Los Angeles, believes the asteroid, designated P/2013 P5, is rotating so much that its surface is flying apart. It's believed to be a fragment of a larger asteroid damaged in a collision 200 million years ago.

Scientists using the Pan-STARRS telescope in Hawaii spotted the asteroid in August. Hubble picked out all the tails in September.

The discovery is described in this week's issue of Astrophysical Journal Letters.

Associated PressSource: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/b2f0ca3a594644ee9e50a8ec4ce2d6de/Article_2013-11-07-Odd%20Asteroid/id-cb9a4fb394cf488482f60454c868573c
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Marvel, Netflix sign deal to bring Daredevil, Power Man, Iron Fist, Jessica Jones, and the Defenders to the small screen

Disney's Marvel division has signed a deal with Netflix to bring Daredevil (I liked the Affleck film, what of it?), Luke Cage (Power Man), Iron Fist, Jessica Jones, and the Defenders to the streaming video service starting in 2015. Each character will get their own show, and then in Marvel Cinematic style, the Defenders will team them all together. Alan Fine, President of Marvel Entertainment:

This deal is unparalleled in its scope and size, and reinforces our commitment to deliver Marvel's brand, content and characters across all platforms of storytelling. Netflix offers an incredible platform for the kind of rich storytelling that is Marvel’s specialty. This serialised epic expands the narrative possibilities of on-demand television and gives fans the flexibility to immerse themselves how and when they want in what’s sure to be a thrilling and engaging adventure.

Calling this group the Defenders is a bit weird. Classically the Defenders were Hulk, Dr. Strange, Namor the Sub Mariner, and Silver Surfer, if memory serves. The lineup has varied wildly over the years, but I can't recall Daredevil, Power Man, or Iron Fist ever playing a huge part in the Defenders. Maybe Marvel figures Heroes for Hire didn't have enough of an Avengers-style ring to it? Either way, I'd rather good than accurate, so hopefully this will be good. (Agents of SHIELD, the first Marvel series currently airing on ABC got off to a rocky start, quality-wise, though recent episodes have been an improvement.)

Also, hopefully this opens the door for a phase 2-style expansion as well, since the "Marvel Knights" line is filled with interesting stories to tell, including Moon Knight, Ronin, Cloak & Dagger, Colleen Wing, Misty Night, and more. Hey, I'd even love to see Power Pack brought to Netflix. Because.

Anyone else trying to hit fast forward to 2015? Watching all this on our iPhone 6S, iPad Helium, and iWatches is going to be excelsior-mazing, right?

Source: Marvel Entertainment; Image: Comic Book Artwork

Disney’s Marvel and Netflix Join Forces to Develop Historic Four Series Epic plus a Miniseries Event Based on Renowned Marvel Characters

Landmark Deal Brings Marvel’s Flawed Heroes of Hell’s Kitchen, led by “Daredevil”, to the World’s Leading Internet TV Network in 2015

Burbank, Calif. – November 7, 2013 – The Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) and Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) today announced an unprecedented deal for Marvel TV to bring multiple original series of live-action adventures of four of Marvel’s most popular characters exclusively to the world’s leading internet TV Network beginning in 2015. This pioneering agreement calls for Marvel to develop four serialised programmes leading to a miniseries programming event.

Led by a series focused on “Daredevil” followed by “Jessica Jones”, “Iron Fist” and “Luke Cage”, the epic will unfold over multiple years of original programming, taking Netflix members deep into the gritty world of heroes and villains of Hell’s Kitchen, New York. Netflix has committed to a minimum of four, thirteen-episode series and a culminating Marvel’s “The Defenders” mini-series event that reimagines a dream team of self-sacrificing, heroic characters.

Produced by Marvel Television in association with ABC Television Studios, this groundbreaking deal is Marvel’s most ambitious foray yet into live-action TV storytelling.

“This deal is unparalleled in its scope and size, and reinforces our commitment to deliver Marvel's brand, content and characters across all platforms of storytelling. Netflix offers an incredible platform for the kind of rich storytelling that is Marvel’s specialty,” said Alan Fine, President of Marvel Entertainment. “This serialised epic expands the narrative possibilities of on-demand television and gives fans the flexibility to immerse themselves how and when they want in what’s sure to be a thrilling and engaging adventure.”

“Marvel’s movies, such as ‘Iron Man’ and Marvel’s ‘The Avengers’, are huge favourites on our service around the world. Like Disney, Marvel is a known and loved brand that travels,” said Netflix Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos. “With ‘House of Cards’ and our other original series, we have pioneered new approaches to storytelling and to global distribution and we’re thrilled to be working with Disney and Marvel to take our brand of television to new levels with a creative project of this magnitude.”

This new original TV deal follows last year’s landmark film distribution deal through which, beginning with 2016 theatrically released feature films, Netflix will be the exclusive U.S. subscription television service for first-run, live-action and animated movies from the Walt Disney Studios, including titles from Disney, Walt Disney Animation Studios, Pixar Animation Studios, Marvel Studios, Disneynature and Lucasfilm. Netflix members can currently enjoy a wide range of Disney, ABC TV and Disney Channel films and shows across the 41 countries where Netflix operates.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheIphoneBlog/~3/71FbDc9Pyks/story01.htm
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Thursday, November 7, 2013

Arafat's mysterious death becomes a whodunit

Palestinians walk past a mural depicting late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat at Shati Refugee Camp, in Gaza City, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2013. Swiss scientists have found evidence suggesting Yasser Arafat may have been poisoned with a radioactive substance, a TV station reported on Wednesday, prompting new allegations by his widow that the Palestinian leader was the victim of a "shocking" crime. Arabic reads, "the leader Abu Ammar, you are in our hearts, your sun will not go down." (AP Photo/Adel Hana)

Palestinian Hanadi Kharma, paints a mural depicting the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat in the West Bank city of Nablus, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2013. Swiss scientists have found evidence suggesting Yasser Arafat may have been poisoned with a radioactive substance, a TV station reported on Wednesday, prompting new allegations by his widow that the Palestinian leader was the victim of a "shocking" crime. (AP Photo/Nasser Ishtayeh)

FILE - In this May 31, 2002 file photo, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat pauses during the weekly Muslim Friday prayers in his headquarters in the West Bank city of Ramallah. Al-Jazeera is reporting that a team of Swiss scientists has found moderate evidence that longtime Palestinian leader Arafat died of poisoning. The Arab satellite channel published a copy of what it said was the scientists' report on its website on Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2013.(AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis, File)

Swiss professor Francois Bochud, left, director of the Chuv Radiophysics Institute, IRA, and Swiss professor Patrice Mangin, right, director of the University Center of Legal Medicine in Lausanne, CURML, speak on a forensics report concerning the late President Yasser Arafat during a press conference at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, CHUV, in Lausanne, Switzerland, Thurday, Nov. 7, 2013. Swiss, French and Russian teams took samples of the remains after exhuming Arafat's body in Ramallah, and submitted results to the Palestinian Authority on Nov. 5. (AP Photo/Keystone, Laurent Gillieron)

Swiss professor Francois Bochud, left, director of the Chuv Radiophysics Institute, IRA, and Swiss professor Patrice Mangin, right, director of the University Center of Legal Medicine in Lausanne, CURML, pose with a forensics report concerning the late President Yasser Arafat during a press conference on of the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, CHUV, in Lausanne, Switzerland, Thurday, Nov. 7, 2013. Swiss, French and Russian teams took samples of the remains after exhuming Arafat's body in Ramallah, and submitted results to the Palestinian Authority on Nov. 5. (AP Photo/Keystone, Laurent Gillieron)

RAMALLAH, West Bank (AP) — Yasser Arafat's mysterious 2004 death turned into a whodunit Thursday after Swiss scientists who examined his remains said the Palestinian leader was probably poisoned with radioactive polonium.

Yet hard proof remains elusive, and nine years on, tracking down anyone who might have slipped minuscule amounts of the lethal substance into Arafat's food or drink could be difficult.

A new investigation could also prove embarrassing — and not just for Israel, which the Palestinians have long accused of poisoning their leader and which has denied any role.

The Palestinians themselves could come under renewed scrutiny, since Arafat was holed up in his Israeli-besieged West Bank compound in the months before his death, surrounded by advisers, staff and bodyguards.

Arafat died at a French military hospital on Nov. 11, 2004, at age 75, a month after suddenly falling violently ill at his compound. At the time, French doctors said he died of a stroke and had a blood-clotting problem, but records were inconclusive about what caused that condition.

The Swiss scientists said that they found elevated traces of polonium-210 and lead in Arafat's remains that could not have occurred naturally, and that the timeframe of Arafat's illness and death was consistent with poisoning from ingesting polonium.

"Our results reasonably support the poisoning theory," Francois Bochud, director of Switzerland's Institute of Radiation Physics, which carried out the investigation, said at a news conference.

Bochud and Patrice Mangin, director of the Lausanne University Hospital's forensics center, said they tested and ruled out innocent explanations, such as accidental poisoning.

"I think we can eliminate this possibility because, as you can imagine, you cannot find polonium everywhere. It's a very rare toxic substance," Mangin told The Associated Press.

Palestinian officials, including Arafat's successor, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, had no comment on the substance of the report but promised a continued investigation.

The findings are certain to revive Palestinian allegations against Israel, a nuclear power. Polonium can be a byproduct of the chemical processing of uranium, but usually is made artificially in a nuclear reactor or a particle accelerator.

Arafat's widow, Suha, called on the Palestinian leadership to seek justice for her husband, saying, "It's clear this is a crime."

Speaking by phone from the Qatari capital Doha, she did not mention Israel but argued that only countries with nuclear capabilities have access to polonium.

In another interview later Thursday, she described her husband's death as a "political assassination" and "the crime of the century" and called the new testing conclusive for poisoning. She said she couldn't predict who was behind the death, but she added, "Whoever did this crime is a coward."

Israel has repeatedly denied a role in Arafat's death and did so again Thursday. Paul Hirschson, a Foreign Ministry official, dismissed the claim as "hogwash."

"We couldn't be bothered to" kill him, Hirschson said. "If anyone remembers the political reality at the time, Arafat was completely isolated. His own people were barely speaking to him. There's no logical reason for Israel to have wanted to do something like this."

In his final years, Arafat was being accused by Israel and the U.S. of condoning and even encouraging Palestinian attacks against Israelis instead of working for a peace deal. In late 2004, Israeli tanks no longer surrounded his compound, but Arafat was afraid to leave for fear of not being allowed to return.

Shortly after his death, the Palestinians launched their own investigation, questioning dozens of people in Arafat's compound, including staff, bodyguards and officials, but no suspects emerged.

Security around Arafat was easily breached toward the end of his life. Aides have described him as impulsive, unable to resist tasting gifts of chocolate or trying out medicines brought by visitors from abroad.

The investigation was dormant until the satellite TV station Al-Jazeera persuaded Arafat's widow last year to hand over a bag with her husband's underwear, headscarves and other belongings. After finding traces of polonium in biological stains on the clothing, investigators dug up his grave in his Ramallah compound earlier this year to take bone and soil samples.

Investigators noted Thursday that they could not account for the chain of custody of the items that were in the bag, leaving open the possibility of tampering.

However, the latest findings are largely based on Arafat's remains and burial soil, and in this case, tampering appears highly improbable, Bochud said.

"I think this can really be ruled out because it was really difficult to access the body," he said. "When we opened the tomb, we were all together."

Polonium-210 is the same substance that killed KGB agent-turned-Kremlin critic Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006.

"It's quite difficult to understand why (Arafat) might have had any polonium, if he was just in his headquarters in Ramallah," said Alastair Hay, a professor of environmental toxicology at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the investigation.

"He wasn't somebody who was moving in and out of atomic energy plants or dealing with radioactive isotopes."

___

John Heilprin reported from Lausanne, Switzerland. Associated Press writers Daniel Estrin in Jerusalem and Lori Hinnant in Paris and AP Medical Writer Maria Cheng in London contributed to this report.

Associated PressSource: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c11a96b4ad082fe88aa0db04305/Article_2013-11-07-Arafat's%20Death/id-5ecc40cb24d74fb3b6aede7b901bc40b
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Bjorn Rebney on Alvarez vs. Chandler 3, his feud with Dana White, and the weekend's most misunderstood .gif

While the road to Bellator 106 may have been filled with more twists and turns than a Formula One course, the outcome was an unquestionable success. Last Saturday's show, a precarious pay-per-view moved to free TV due to an eleventh hour injury by Tito Ortiz, wound up smashing Bellator's previous ratings records, peaking at 1.4 million viewers and introducing a brand new audience to the Bellator product through one of the year's best fights.

Now, days after a bloodied and battered Eddie Alvarez settled the score with Michael Chandler and set up the salivating prospect of a third fight between the two lightweight standouts, the question stands whether Ortiz's withdrawal, and the subsequent viewership increase Bellator gained from the shift away from pay-per-view, proved to be a blessing in disguise for the Viacom-owned promotion.

"Part of you looks at it and you say hindsight is 20/20," Bellator CEO Bjorn Rebney told MMAFighting.com. "You go, wow, we got a huge number and we had an amazing fight that a ton of people got to see that wouldn't have otherwise seen it. (They) got to be introduced to the Bellator brand at it's very highest level, so that's a huge positive.

"Of course there are some negatives, economic and otherwise for having to have changed things like we did eight days out. But the magic that Ed and Mike created inside of that cage, and the effort that gave, the power of that performance, is just something that, hopefully, opened a lot of eyes to Bellator. People who, maybe they've never seen it, they didn't watch us regularly on Friday nights, hopefully those people will come back this Friday and the next Friday and the Friday after. So when you look at it that way, it was a huge positive."

Realistically there was never any doubt about the significance of an Alvarez-Chandler rematch. Even when Ortiz and Rampage Jackson officially fronted the card, more fans viewed Alvarez vs. Chandler II as the main event than not. But even in a best case scenario, the buyrate for Bellator 106 would've likely never approached the 1.4 million mark the event drew on Spike TV -- which begs the question, why would Bellator, a promotion by all accounts on the rise, considerably limit viewership by taking its best product to pay-per-view in the first place?

"We were looking at a transition and trying to figure out when would be an appropriate time to do it," Rebney explained. "We signed a big deal with Rampage and Rampage was coming back like gangbusters in terms of his training. I was able to put Quinton in touch with the folks who did the incredible work on Kobe (Bryant's) knee vis-à-vis the blood transfusion work. So it was all kinda coming into focus, and it just looked like the right move at the time to make that change and to go in that direction.

"When you look at what happened on Saturday night, hindsight is always 20/20. Maybe if you could see into the future, you'd say this is an incredible fight. Let's put it on Spike for free and let's introduce the brand to a much bigger audience and give everybody this crazy fight for free, because maybe it'll lead to the trilogy fight, number three, that will be a pure pay-per-view fight. Who knows? But it's tough to say."

Regardless of how things played out, one takeaway from Saturday night is unquestionably true. Alvarez's next fight will be a rubber match against Chandler. And due to the frenetic nature of the first two meetings, it will easily be the most anticipated fight in Bellator history.

Though as to whether the trilogy fight will mark the last fight on Alvarez's new contract, as is widely speculated, Rebney won't say.

"There's a lot of different options on Ed's contract," Rebney explained. "Ed could be with us for a very long period of time or a shorter period of time. There's a lot of different options. We haven't gone into the specifics of what our actual settlement with Ed was, but the next fight with Ed is going to be Mike, and the next fight with Mike is going to be Ed, and then we'll see what the outcome of that fight is. That will dictate what we're going to do next."

In many ways, Alvarez seizing the belt back from Chandler was perhaps the most fitting ending one could draw up after a bitter year-long battle with Bellator locked Alvarez in the courtroom, rather than the cage. At times there seemed to be no end in sight to the dispute, as the relationship between Alvarez and Bellator officials deteriorated into a rancorous war or words, and both sides took their turn airing grievances through the media.

Yet in the aftermath of Saturday night, Alvarez has been the epitome of class, electing not to speak ill about the way everything played out.

"You'd always prefer to have situations work out without any kind of conflict," Rebney said of the courtroom standoff. "It's just human nature that if you can avoid the conflict and things can be positive, you want them to go that way. But look, it was what it was. We had an agreement, we had a specific agreement that we wanted to enforce, and hindsight now, looking back at it, to be able to put on that kind of fight, Ed made great money on Saturday night, Ed's going to have an opportunity to make great money on the third fight. Mike's going to have an opportunity to make great money. It's going to get huge coverage, a very real potential to be an main event on a big pay-per-view. It's all come around. Were there things I'd do differently? I don't know, that's a tough call. I'd have to go back and analyze every step we took.

"When you're building something like this, and you're competing in a space that's as hyper competitive as this with people, there's a reason they call it the fight business. It's not populated by a lot of people who write children's books. It's a tough business, it's a tough industry. It usually involves and engages tough people with dominant personalities. When you get people like that and they're running a business, you're going to run into conflict and you're going to have to fight for certain things."

Among Rebney's loudest critics throughout the Alvarez case was UFC President Dana White, who ultimately lost out on Alvarez's services due to Bellator's courtroom tactics.

As is his way, whether through social media or press events, White has taken more than a few shots at Rebney, who he often refers to as "Bjork." He did so again in the aftermath of Bellator 106, tweeting a congratulations to Alvarez while implying that Chandler's loss was "karma" for the way in which things were handled.

Rebney, though, fired back at White on Tuesday, and days later he maintains that stance.

"I'm in the business of mixed martial arts. I'm not a theatrical performer. But occasionally, just like in any situation that anybody would find themselves in, people will say certain things and you just feel an obligation to respond," Rebney said.

"When [White] made the comments a month or so ago about how Bellator had no value, it was three days after his partners had paid us tens of millions of dollars for our rights in Latin America, and I just felt like I gotta say something. When you throw up a softball like that, you'd have to be a fool to not take a swing at it. And when he made the comments that he made via Twitter about karma, it was just like, look, it's not about karma. It's not about some sixth or seventh grade back-and-forth that you have when you're a kid. It's about numbers, it's about ratings. It's about putting on incredible fights for fans. That's what matters. The numbers don't lie. And coming off the heels of a show where his group did 124,000 viewers, where ours did ten times that, it just felt like, you know what, it warranted a response. I've never going to be the guy who goes off on three and four minute profanity laden tirades. That's just not me. But look, let's see how they do on [Wednesday], and then let's see how we do on Friday night.

"Let's compare numbers to numbers," Rebney continued. "That's what the business is. The business is not childish slings.

"When Bellator was very small and insignificant, he had nothing to say. When we were on ESPN Deportes and we were on FOX Sports many years ago, he had nothing to say. Now we're on the No. 1 network in the history of mixed martial arts programming, on Spike, and our ratings are in some instances beating his ratings head-to-head. Now he has a lot to say. I wonder why."

White responded to Rebney's tweet not long after it was posted, referring in part to a .gif which made the internet rounds on Saturday night. The .gif appears to show Rebney shaking his head after the decision was read in Alvarez's favor. However, Rebney dismisses the entire mini-controversy as a misunderstanding.

"It's total nonsense. Total complete and utter nonsense," Rebney said. "I was sitting cageside, sitting next to (announcer) Michael C. Williams, and Michael was reading the decision. Look, I get that we were in southern California, and I get that Michael Chandler is an Alliance guy and he trains out of southern Cal, and I get that he had probably 1,000 or more fans in attendance, but when [Williams] read the decision, and the decision was ‘and the new,' and Ed was given the decision, a lot of fans started booing. I was shaking my head at that. I couldn't believe that fans were actually booing that decision. And some idiot took a picture of me shaking my head at fans booing and then put his own or her own caption on it, which had no basis in reality.

"When two guys give that much heart and soul, and two guys sacrifice that much, it's just inappropriate to boo. I thought it was out of line and I was shaking my head like, what? How do you justify booing something like that? These guys were just willing to die inside this cage to win this fight."

Widespread misunderstanding of the .gif contributed to the idea that despite the excitement of Alvarez-Chandler II and Bellator's subsequent record ratings success, the event may have been seen as a negative. After all, Chandler, Pat Curran, and Muhammed Lawal -- three fighters who Bellator heavily marketed as stars -- all lost on Saturday night, the latter two of which lost in somewhat lethargic fashion.

Rebney, though, vehemently disagrees with that notion.

"It's the absolute opposite. It's what makes us, us," Rebney said. "The reality in Bellator is that the only thing that matters is winning. I don't have a bunch of guys in Chinese suits on their own special floor with an access key sitting behind a big shiny desk with people serving them lunch on trays, deciding who fights who, for what and when. It's just not our policy. It's not how we work. Bellator is about the upset.

"We're not orchestrating it. We're not puppet masters. We're just the purveyors of an incredible sports tournament. Guys are going to lose, guys are going to win, but that's what makes Bellator, Bellator. I have no qualms about, in my mind, who won and who lost."

Source: http://www.mmafighting.com/2013/11/7/5077674/bjorn-rebney-on-alvarez-vs-chandler-3-his-feud-with-dana-white-and
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Lea Michele and the Cast of "Glee" Are Feeling Festive on Set

Getting into the holiday spirit a little earlier than the rest of us, Lea Michele, Chris Colfer, and Naya Rivera filmed a holiday episode of "Glee" on Thursday (November 7).

While Rachel wore a red tutu with her green top and pointy elf hat, Santana sported a sexy sleeveless ensemble with Kurt stuck in tights with his outfit.

Recently, the 27-year-old actress got a special shoutout from one of her favorite pop stars on Twitter as the gang features her songs on Thursday's episode.

Encouraging her fans to tune in, Lea tweeted, "#Glee is back tonight! Who's excited?! Hope you guys love it! #GleeSeason5 #KatyOrGaga, " to which Katy Perry replied, "I'm sups excited for tonight's episode of #GLEE, who's with me?!" Clearly indicating her side, Ms. Michele wrote, "I am @katyperry! Ps I love you. #fangirling."

Source: http://celebrity-gossip.net/lea-michele/lea-michele-and-cast-glee-are-feeling-festive-set-957485
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Jaguars, Buccaneers halfway to NFL history

Tampa Bay Buccaneers strong safety Mark Barron rests on the field after the Buccaneers lost 27-24 to the Seattle Seahawks in overtime of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 3, 2013, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)

San Francisco 49ers linebacker Corey Lemonier (96) tries to knock the ball out of Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Chad Henne's hand during the first half of an NFL football game at Wembley Stadium, London, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2013. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Mike Glennon walks off the field after the Buccaneers lost 27-24 to the Seattle Seahawks in overtime of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 3, 2013, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Cecil Shorts (84), right, evades the tackle of San Francisco 49ers free safety Eric Reid (35) during the NFL football game between San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium in London, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2013. (AP Photo/Sang Tan)

Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are halfway to history — and not the kind anyone wants to celebrate, chronicle or recall.

Winless through eight games, the Jaguars and Buccaneers could join the 2008 Detroit Lions (0-16) and the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-14) as the only winless teams in NFL history.

It's not a spot either Florida franchise thought it would be in when the season began two months ago.

The Bucs finished 7-9 in 2012, and despite losing five of their final six games, were widely expected to show improvement in coach Greg Schiano's second year. They spent more than $130 million on cornerback Darrelle Revis and safety Dashon Goldson.

The Jags were coming off the worst season in the franchise's 18 years, a 2-14 debacle the led to the firing of general manager Gene Smith and coach Mike Mularkey. Under new GM Dave Caldwell and first-year coach Gus Bradley, it was a clear rebuilding project in Jacksonville. Nonetheless, the Jaguars figured things couldn't possibly get any worse.

Think again.

Now, at the midway point of the season, the teams located about 175 miles apart are making headlines and highlights as they approach history one loss at a time.

"Things happen for a reason, so obviously going 0-8 happened," Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew said. "But you have to learn from that. We're not going to run away from anything. That happened, and we have to face it head on."

There's still plenty of football remaining, with both teams getting eight more chances to avoid ending up in an elusive club that would make them a punch line for a lifetime.

But until one of them notches that first victory, the question lingers: Who has the best shot at going 0-16?

___

WHY THE BUCS: Their locker room could become as messy as a MRSA infection. Schiano botched quarterback Josh Freeman's benching, getting accused of rigging the captains vote and then of releasing confidential information about Freeman being in the league's substance-abuse program. Eventually, players might give up on Schiano, who is widely perceived as just another college coach in over his head since leaving Rutgers to take over a team that lost its final 10 games in 2011. The Bucs have dropped 13 of 14 dating to last season.

WHY THE JAGS: They have been bad — really bad. Jacksonville is the first team since the 1984 Houston Oilers to lose its first eight games by double digits, a stunning display of ineptitude on both side of the ball. The Jaguars can, however, point to having the league's toughest schedule so far. They played Kansas City, Seattle, Indianapolis, Denver and San Francisco — teams at or near the top of every power poll. There may be hope, though. Jacksonville's next seven games are against teams currently .500 or worse.

___

WHY THE BUCS: They can't seem to win close games. Tampa Bay has led in the fourth quarter four times, dropping all four in final 89 seconds of regulation or overtime. The Bucs led 21-0 at Seattle — one of the toughest places for visiting teams — last week before fading down the stretch. "At times, we've snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, which is really frustrating," said Schiano, whose team is 0-7 in games decided by three points or less during his tenure.

WHY THE JAGS: They won't have their best offensive player for the rest of the season. Receiver Justin Blackmon's latest violation of the league's substance-abuse policy landed him an indefinite suspension. Despite his troubles, countless roster moves and the surprising trade of left tackle Eugene Monroe, the Jaguars have a cohesive locker room. Even Jones-Drew, who's in the final year of his contract, appears fully vested in the new regime. "What else can you be?" Jones-Drew said. "It's a choice. You could be moping around and down if you want, but that's not going to solve anything."

___

WHY THE BUCS: They have a rookie quarterback. Although third-round draft pick Mike Glennon set NFL rookie records for the most completions and attempts over his first four starts, he's now 0-5, has been sacked 13 times and has failed to mount a game-winning drive. Glennon has completed 60 percent of his passes for 1,165 yards, with eight touchdowns and three interceptions. He's also gotten little help from the team's sputtering ground game. "The guy can make every throw," receiver Vincent Jackson said. "He is very decisive. He puts balls in places, usually where you can make a play on it. If it's not catchable, he's going to throw it away. He's not going to take a lot of chances. That just helps us as an offense when we're taking care of the football."

WHY THE JAGS: They have the worst quarterback situation in the league. The Jags already benched former first-round draft pick Blaine Gabbert in favor of backup Chad Henne. Together, they have four TD passes and 12 INTs, and have been sacked a whopping 28 times. Gabbert's struggles under pressure and his inability to stay healthy prompted the Jaguars to move on after he played just three games this season. No matter what happens the rest of the way, Jacksonville is surely to draft another quarterback in April — likely with one of the first few picks.

___

AP NFL website: www.pro32.ap.org

Associated PressSource: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/347875155d53465d95cec892aeb06419/Article_2013-11-07-FBN-Florida-Flops/id-7750e951d5a0447c9b0367cbc03041fe
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Camus' Stance On Algeria Still Stokes Debate In France

Algeria-born Albert Camus poses for a portrait in Paris following the announcement that he is being awarded the Nobel Prize for literature in 1957. Camus' views on his birthplace still stoke controversy.

AFP/Getty Images

A hundred years after his birth, French writer-philosopher Albert Camus is perhaps best-remembered for novels like The Stranger and The Plague, and for his philosophy of absurdism.

But it's another aspect of his intellectual body of work that's under scrutiny as France marks the Camus centennial: his views about his native Algeria.

Camus was born on Nov. 7, 1913, to a poor family that had settled generations earlier in French Algeria. His father died a year after his birth, and Camus' illiterate and deaf mother, who worked as a cleaning lady, raised him. His brilliance would deliver him from that world of poverty.

This photo from 1920 shows 7-year-old Albert Camus (center, wearing black suit) in the workshop of his Uncle Etienne in Algiers.

Apic/Getty Images

This photo from 1920 shows 7-year-old Albert Camus (center, wearing black suit) in the workshop of his Uncle Etienne in Algiers.

Apic/Getty Images

Camus is regarded as a giant of French literature. But according to Smithsonian contributor Joshua Hammer, it's Camus' North African birthplace that permeated his thoughts and shaped his writing.

"His two greatest novels, The Stranger and The Plague, were both set there, in Oran and Algiers. He wrote incredible lyrical essays about his life there," Hammer says. "So he's extraordinarily Algerian ... down to the core."

But Algeria has never reciprocated that love, says Hammer, who recently traced the writer's roots there. That's because Camus' French Algeria, much like apartheid South Africa, was divided into two worlds: an Arab world and the world of the pieds-noirs, or black feet, the name given to the million-plus Europeans who lived there.

"He represents an Algeria that essentially is banished from the map, an Algeria of the pieds-noirs. So this was the world that Camus knew. It was a very segregated society, he really didn't know the Arab world," Hammer says. "So that's what you saw reflected in his work."

During World War II, Camus joined the French Resistance against the Nazis and published an underground newspaper. It was his novel The Stranger, published in 1942, that brought him instant international acclaim. In 1947 came The Plague, a novel seen as a classic of existentialism.

In 1957, at the age of 43, Camus won the Nobel Prize for literature.

But it's Camus' politics, not his philosophy, that still makes waves in France. Though he hailed from the left, today he's embraced by conservatives. In the 1950s, Camus fell out with philosopher Jean-Paul Sartre and the Paris left bank literary scene after he denounced communism.

Camus' stance on the Algerian war infuriated both the left and right at the time. He supported Arab aspirations for political rights, but he couldn't imagine an independent Algeria.

The topic remains sensitive in France, where 1 million pieds-noirs fled after the war ended in 1962. One Camus exhibit was canceled and two historians fired, reportedly to appease the sensitivities of the local pieds-noirs community.

Biographer Elizabeth Hawes says Camus was always more simple, seen from the U.S.

"Americans in general don't know anything about Algeria and they know very little about French intellectual politics. And so Camus was always just sort of a hero," Hawes says. "There was a lot of the mythic to Camus. He was great looking, and he was heroic, and there was the resistance, he was the outsider."

Camus' life was cut tragically short at the height of his career in a car accident in 1960. He was only 46. France is still grappling with his legacy.

Source: http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2013/11/07/243536815/on-his-100th-birthday-camus-algerian-ties-still-controversial?ft=1&f=1032
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Developing methods for quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity for complex systems

PUBLIC RELEASE DATE:

7-Nov-2013

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Contact: Janet Lathrop
jlathrop@admin.umass.edu
413-545-0444
University of Massachusetts at Amherst

AMHERST, Mass. Applied mathematicians Markos Katsoulakis and Luc Rey-Bellet of the University of Massachusetts Amherst will share a three-year, $2.3 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy, with others, to develop new methods to assess and improve mathematical modeling of multi-scale, complex systems. Once developed, the new methods are expected to have applications in energy research and materials synthesis.

As Katsoulakis explains, predictive mathematical models and algorithms have long complemented theory and experiments in applied sciences and engineering, but such computational models are now more important than ever because of the increased complexity of the problems plus advances in computing capabilities. A recognition of the vast predictive potential of modeling and efficient simulation of complex systems, he points out, is the fact that the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry was awarded for the development of multi-scale models for complex chemical systems.

One of the primary practical applications planned by Katsoulakis and Rey-Bellet, with partners at Brown University and the University of Delaware, is to design highly efficient and cost-effective bimetallic catalysts using relatively inexpensive metals, allowing storage and production of clean hydrogen fuel from readily available sources such as ammonia.

Katsoulakis says, "The role of uncertainty and sensitivity quantification in this process turns out to be crucial, because the design of bimetallic catalysts rests on understanding how sensitive the catalyst's performance metrics are on its parent metals. Also, experiments have shown that performance depends on the micro-geometry of the arrangement of the two metals, that is structure and ordering of their layers. Given all the choices we have in selecting materials and geometries for the two-metal catalysts, this becomes a very complex system to model."

Being able to systematically evaluate which metal combinations in the catalyst are the most efficient and cost effective is one of the team's key goals. The challenge is an example of a model where new mathematical and computational techniques for assessing uncertainty and quantifying sensitivity can be extremely productive, the researchers say.

Over the next three years, the multi-institution team will develop new mathematical tools that describe uncertainty and model sensitivity using information theory, probability theory, statistical methods such as model selection and model reduction, rare events methods, multi-scale analysis and parameterization of coarse-grained models from finer scales and data.

Mathematical models are now routinely being asked to account for systems of
increasing complexity, that is handling millions or even billions of variables. In addition, a model must integrate data from different scales and must account for different spatial scales, for example from the molecular level all the way to the everyday macroscopic scale, and basic physical processes at different time scales.

The UMass Amherst mathematician says, "Interactions across scales are a unifying feature in all complex systems that we may experience in everyday life. Think of the effect that a single vehicle breakdown during rush hour may have to the overall traffic flow, even at very large distances from the scene." Taking all the different variables and mechanisms such as vehicle speeds, sizes, road network, weather, traffic volume and so on into account, represents a typical complex "multi-scale multi-physics" modeling, simulation and analysis problem that challenges current applied mathematical methods, he adds.

Handling real-life systems with unprecedented levels of complexity and multi-scale features requires not only more powerful computational capabilities, but also new mathematics, Katsoulakis explains. "Though high performance computing can allow us, for the first time, to simulate at least some complex systems, there are important concerns related to the effectiveness and reliability of the predictive computational models."

As in the traffic example, all such models depend on a large number of mechanisms and parameters but it is not immediately obvious which ones critically affect the final predictions and which ones can be ignored. Another, closely related, source of uncertainty is insufficient knowledge of a particular highly complex system.

Katsoulakis and Rey-Bellet believe that their research has great potential for wider impact in a number of fields because it will lay down the mathematical foundations for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis in a broad class of complex systems typically encountered in physicochemical and biological processes, atmosphere and ocean science, and other types of complex networks.

Besides Katsoulakis and Rey-Bellet at UMass Amherst, collaborators are mathematician Petr Plechac and chemical engineer Dion Vlachos at the University of Delaware and applied mathematician Paul Dupuis at Brown University.

###

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Developing methods for quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity for complex systems

PUBLIC RELEASE DATE:

7-Nov-2013

[

| E-mail

]

Share
Contact: Janet Lathrop
jlathrop@admin.umass.edu
413-545-0444
University of Massachusetts at Amherst

AMHERST, Mass. Applied mathematicians Markos Katsoulakis and Luc Rey-Bellet of the University of Massachusetts Amherst will share a three-year, $2.3 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy, with others, to develop new methods to assess and improve mathematical modeling of multi-scale, complex systems. Once developed, the new methods are expected to have applications in energy research and materials synthesis.

As Katsoulakis explains, predictive mathematical models and algorithms have long complemented theory and experiments in applied sciences and engineering, but such computational models are now more important than ever because of the increased complexity of the problems plus advances in computing capabilities. A recognition of the vast predictive potential of modeling and efficient simulation of complex systems, he points out, is the fact that the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry was awarded for the development of multi-scale models for complex chemical systems.

One of the primary practical applications planned by Katsoulakis and Rey-Bellet, with partners at Brown University and the University of Delaware, is to design highly efficient and cost-effective bimetallic catalysts using relatively inexpensive metals, allowing storage and production of clean hydrogen fuel from readily available sources such as ammonia.

Katsoulakis says, "The role of uncertainty and sensitivity quantification in this process turns out to be crucial, because the design of bimetallic catalysts rests on understanding how sensitive the catalyst's performance metrics are on its parent metals. Also, experiments have shown that performance depends on the micro-geometry of the arrangement of the two metals, that is structure and ordering of their layers. Given all the choices we have in selecting materials and geometries for the two-metal catalysts, this becomes a very complex system to model."

Being able to systematically evaluate which metal combinations in the catalyst are the most efficient and cost effective is one of the team's key goals. The challenge is an example of a model where new mathematical and computational techniques for assessing uncertainty and quantifying sensitivity can be extremely productive, the researchers say.

Over the next three years, the multi-institution team will develop new mathematical tools that describe uncertainty and model sensitivity using information theory, probability theory, statistical methods such as model selection and model reduction, rare events methods, multi-scale analysis and parameterization of coarse-grained models from finer scales and data.

Mathematical models are now routinely being asked to account for systems of
increasing complexity, that is handling millions or even billions of variables. In addition, a model must integrate data from different scales and must account for different spatial scales, for example from the molecular level all the way to the everyday macroscopic scale, and basic physical processes at different time scales.

The UMass Amherst mathematician says, "Interactions across scales are a unifying feature in all complex systems that we may experience in everyday life. Think of the effect that a single vehicle breakdown during rush hour may have to the overall traffic flow, even at very large distances from the scene." Taking all the different variables and mechanisms such as vehicle speeds, sizes, road network, weather, traffic volume and so on into account, represents a typical complex "multi-scale multi-physics" modeling, simulation and analysis problem that challenges current applied mathematical methods, he adds.

Handling real-life systems with unprecedented levels of complexity and multi-scale features requires not only more powerful computational capabilities, but also new mathematics, Katsoulakis explains. "Though high performance computing can allow us, for the first time, to simulate at least some complex systems, there are important concerns related to the effectiveness and reliability of the predictive computational models."

As in the traffic example, all such models depend on a large number of mechanisms and parameters but it is not immediately obvious which ones critically affect the final predictions and which ones can be ignored. Another, closely related, source of uncertainty is insufficient knowledge of a particular highly complex system.

Katsoulakis and Rey-Bellet believe that their research has great potential for wider impact in a number of fields because it will lay down the mathematical foundations for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis in a broad class of complex systems typically encountered in physicochemical and biological processes, atmosphere and ocean science, and other types of complex networks.

Besides Katsoulakis and Rey-Bellet at UMass Amherst, collaborators are mathematician Petr Plechac and chemical engineer Dion Vlachos at the University of Delaware and applied mathematician Paul Dupuis at Brown University.

###

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Share

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AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-11/uoma-dmf110713.php
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Arafat's mysterious death becomes a whodunit

Swiss professor Francois Bochud, left, director of the Chuv Radiophysics Institute, IRA, and Swiss professor Patrice Mangin, right, director of the University Center of Legal Medicine in Lausanne, CURML, pose with a forensics report concerning the late President Yasser Arafat during a press conference on of the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, CHUV, in Lausanne, Switzerland, Thurday, Nov. 7, 2013. Swiss, French and Russian teams took samples of the remains after exhuming Arafat's body in Ramallah, and submitted results to the Palestinian Authority on Nov. 5. (AP Photo/Keystone, Laurent Gillieron)

A forensics report concerning the late President Yasser Arafat is presented during a press conference of the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, CHUV, in Lausanne, Switzerland, Thurday, Nov. 7, 2013. Swiss, French and Russian teams took samples of the remains after exhuming Arafat's body in Ramallah, and submitted results to the Palestinian Authority on Nov. 5. (AP Photo/Keystone, Laurent Gillieron)